Southerly winds will continue to increase today and finally some decent moisture return will begin by this afternoon and evening.

Dry southerly winds (rare in these parts) have resulted in a series on new wildfires over the state this weekend as the southerly inflow has yet to tap into any significant moisture return. As the next storm system approaches from the west late today into Tuesday, the low level jet will begin to increase from southern TX northward across much of the area east of I-35. Position and track of this next storm system is northward of the one from last week, and expect less severe weather locally and a much lower tornado threat.

Dry line will sharpen over WC TX on Tuesday afternoon and begin to progress eastward into the Hill Country and NW TX by late afternoon where the feature will encounter deeper Gulf moisture. Thunderstorms will develop and move ESE overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. There is once again mid level capping over southern Texas into SE TX which will limit the southward extent of the line of storms. Greatest risk of thunderstorms will be along and north of I-10 early Wednesday with the greatest severe risk toward the Huntsville and Lake Livingston areas.

While the severe threat locally is low, it is not zero, and a severe storm or two cannot be rule out even for the metro area. Main threats will be damaging winds and large hails with the tornado threat a secondary risk. With that said, shear profiles are favorable for low level rotation and this may be a case where bows in any portion of a line could utilize the shear profiles for brief spin ups along the leading edge of the line … common along the Gulf coast this time of year.

Dry air mass surges quickly into the region on Wednesday, but the cold front lags back several hours and with clearing skies and westerly winds temperatures could get pretty warm. At least mid-80s for most location and may go warmer is skies clear fast.

Other concern on Wednesday afternoon will be fire weather … while the storm system early Wednesday may bring some modest rainfall to parts of the area, very dry air mass and gusty westerly winds behind the system will likely result in near critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon, especially for the Brazos Valley and west. Fire activity has continued to increase across the state with several new large fires over the weekend. Conditions show little to no improvement through the next week and post frontal air masses with very low humidity values and gusty winds will bring critical fire weather concerns for many areas.