After months of drought and heat it finally appears that much of the area will see some relief this week as several factors combine to bring widespread rains to the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again develop along the seabreeze today…these storms will have the potential to produce lightning induced fires (as seen yesterday over east Texas). Wednesday starts the same as today, but changes begin by afternoon as a decent shortwave in the developing eastern US trough digs southward over the MS valley.

This feature will likely help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over SE TX with this activity lasting well into the evening hours on Wednesday. On Thursday a mid level low along the northern Gulf coast moves westward and into Texas with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely. Moisture levels will become increasingly saturated with PWS of 2.0-2.3 inches late Wednesday-Saturday and this will support some heavy rainfall with the stronger storms. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Friday is in the 60-70% range for much of the area including the very parched western and northwestern areas.

High moisture levels linger into the weekend with a weak boundary drifting southward from the north. This will likely keep a good chance of showers and thunderstorms ongoing into Saturday. With increasing clouds, moisture, and rain chances temperatures will likely fall short of average highs for the first time in a long time on Thursday and Friday.

Fire Weather:

Last several days have featured numerous grass and wildfires over the region including a 400 acre fire near Lake Somerville which burned 2 homes and threatened 13 others. This fire was quickly fanned by strong thunderstorm outflow winds of 40-50 mph which resulted in extensive burn rates and crowning/spotting. Yesterday evening, several fires started due to lightning in eastern Texas from Jasper County into Trinity and Polk Counties. Weather conditions continue to be generally unfavorable for the development and spread of fires, but vegetation and the background drought state is compensating for the light winds and higher humidity levels. Relief in the form of widespread showers and thunderstorms later this week should help reduce fuel load dryness to some degree.

Tropics:

A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean (97L) is moving westward with limited thunderstorm activity and organization. This wave has about a 40% chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next few days before conditions become increasingly unfavorable with stable air and increasing wind shear.