Mid and upper-level ridge is centered over the southern plains this morning, but is just far enough inland that tropical moisture is sliding NW toward the TX coast. Radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters and a few have moved inland over the coastal counties this morning. As temperatures warm into the low to mid 90’s showers and thunderstorms will develop along the inland moving seabreeze boundary.

Slightly better rain chances will be in the forecast on Wednesday as tropical moisture moves slightly further inland and this will again promote a favorable air mass for heating to develop showers and storms along the sea breeze front. Activity will encounter the subsidence from the ridge toward the NW so inland areas (north of I-10 and west of I-45) will likely not see as much coverage as near coastal areas. 

Rain chances remain daily in the 20-30% range through the end of the week with temperatures in the mid to upper 90’s except low 100’s across the very dry Brazos Valley area. 

Fire Weather: 

There were several fire starts on Sunday and Monday over the region, even with weather conditions well below Red Flag criteria. This is a testament to just how dry the fuel loads have become with significant stress in the ladder (medium) and canopy (large) fuel loads. Fires continue to show aggressive and extreme behavior and have required significant resources for containment. Overall weather conditions are not in the critical range (low humidity and gusty winds) for fire growth, but the dead and dying fuel loads are helping to make up for the lack of favorable weather conditions and allowing fire starts and spread. 

Grimes 4285 Fire: 100 acres and 95% contained. Fire started yesterday afternoon near Hwy 90 and FM 36 in northern Grimes County near the town of Singleton. Air support from TFS helped ground crews bring the fire under control by early evening. 

Waller County: 80 acres and 100% contained. Fire started from a hay bailing machine near FM 362 and Stockdick Rd. Numerous fire departments were able to bring the fire under control by early evening. 

Nelson Creek Fire: 1911 acres and 100% contained after 7 days. TFS and TAMU flew a heat seeking drone over the fire burn scare yesterday to find any hot spots and indicated that the burned area had cooled and released control back to local FD’s. 

Tropics: 

No significant features of concern across the Atlantic basin, but atmospheric conditions look to become increasingly favorable for tropical development over the next few weeks as is common in early August.