Upper-level ridge of high pressure will intensify slightly today and this will add 1-2 degrees to the already very hot afternoon temperatures. Afternoon temperatures of 104-106 in the excessive heat warning area can be expected with heat index values of 108-110. Elsewhere afternoon temperatures in the 100-103 range will be common with heat index values of 107-110. College Station recorded 106 yesterday which tied its 71-year-old daily record. 

Ridge begins to move westward and weaken slightly into the later part of this weekend and weekend and this will allow a bit of deeper moisture and a trough of low pressure to move into the lower TX coast. There could be just enough reduction in the subsidence for a slight (20%) chance of rain along the sea breeze starting Friday and lasting into the weekend. Temperatures will also cool a few degrees back into the upper 90’s/low 100’s with a bit more cloud cover. 

Fire Weather: 

No significant new fire started yesterday, but crews continued to work on various fires from Monday. Conditions again this afternoon will be near critical over the region with falling humidity levels (below 35%) and gusty south winds of 15-20mph. Air mass has been effective at mixing out the low-level moisture each day and lowering dewpoints/humidity values. Given the gusty winds, any fire that is able to get going will be difficult to contain. Conditions are starting to improve some going into Thursday and Friday with less wind and a bit more humidity. However, given the very dry fuel loads fire conditions will remain elevated until widespread rainfall occurs. 

Nelson Creek Fire: 

Fire is 1852 acres and 80% contained. Ground crews were able to complete containment lines on Tuesday with heavy air support including a DC-10 air tanker and various helicopters. Containment lines were able to be widened and fire activity was moderate compared to the day before. Complete containment of this fire is likely today or Thursday.