Center of TS Imelda located in Montgomery County

Posted

Heavy rainfall this morning has been focused near the coast from Bay City to High Island and also over extreme NE Harris County and eastern Montgomery County (see hydro below for E Fork Forecast) with widespread 24 hour amounts of 5-6 inches over SE Harris County with isolated totals of 9 inches and 6-8 inches over NE Harris County into SE Montgomery County.

The center will continue to drift northward today into NE Montgomery County with moderate to at times heavy rainfall affecting NE Harris County and the East Fork of the San Jacinto basin. Additional rainfall over the NE parts of Harris County will likely average .5 to 1.5 inches this afternoon.

While earlier today high-resolution models were showing the additional formation of feeder bands near the US 59 corridor this afternoon, these same models have now backed away from this idea in favor of more isolated the scattered development. This change appears to be tied to the continued development of the coastal feeder band that is prevent good low-level inflow further inland. As this feeder band breaks down later today new bands may begin to develop further to the north this evening into the overnight hours over SE/E/NE Harris County. However, it is uncertain as to where and how extensive this banding may become which leads to only moderate confidence in its placement and amounts.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches widespread with isolated amounts of 6-8 inches will be possible mainly across the eastern portions of Harris County, Amounts across western Harris County will likely be less than 2 inches.

Hydro:

East Fork of the San Jacinto: Latest RFC forecast indicates moderate flooding in possible at FM 1485 the end of this week.
West Fork of the San Jacinto: no flooding is currently forecast
Clear Creek: creek is overbanks from below FM 528 to Clear Lake. Creek has had a slight secondary rise below Country Club this morning, but is near crest and starting a slow fall
Turkey Creek: creek is near bankfull, but very slowly falling
Armand Bayou: slowly falling
Cedar Bayou: within banks, but upstream run-off will result in a continued rise today.

Should additional heavy rainfall impact these watersheds tonight, rise could result in overbank flooding.

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